Hungary – In my view Hungary isn’t best pick for long for year 2007. Politic situation doesn’t support growth as government debt is 10% of GDP, CPI is 9%.
Hungarian stocks index BUX gained 9% in last 12 months which is even less than EURO STOXX 50 (15%). On the other side due to those politics instabilities BUX P/E ratio is 12.6 which is the lowest eastern european. Your investment to hungarian financial instruments could support also currency appreciation as central bank is probably going to do intervention in favour of hungarian Forint.
Basis of BUX:
bank OTP 35.8% of BUX, gas company MOL with 28.3%, telco Magyuar Telecom 13.7% and pharmaceutical Gedeon Richter with 14.5%.
All together those 4 blue chips represent 92% of BUX!
And how to invest in Hungary? In EUWAX, I have two favourite open-end index certifikates.
1. ISIN CH0021606022 from UBS for index BUX (included dividend payments which are btw 13%!).
2. ISIN AT0000454194 from Raiffeisen Centrobank for index HTX (w/o dividends).
Romania – Romania as a EU newcomers is a emerging country with high potential. Main index BET is composed mainly of financial and mining. it is around 60% of market cap. Traded blue chips are Petrom, BRD, Banca Transilvania, C.N.T.E.E. Transelectrica. As in other transition economies local romanian companies are targets for acquisitions. In bank’s sector BRD acquired by Societe Generale, Banca Transilvania by austrian Erste Bank.
On AMEX you have only few ETF focused on central and eastern europe only with fraction of romanian shares. Better way is to use certifikates at Xetra Wien or Stuttgart. Main emitents are Raiffeisenbank, Erste bank.